As leaders we have been trained to follow our natural inclination to assume a straightforward and linear connection between cause and effect. In addition, we look for root causes at the center of problems, but we often then fail to perceive the broader forces at work.
One consequence of such an approach may be our reluctance to let go of our existing image of the traditional leader. The default model of a clear-minded person, certain of his or her outlook and ideas, is not consistent with the qualities that allow possibilities to flourish. In a complex world, an organization is often better served by leaders with a commitment to understanding, a keen sense of their own limitations, an insatiable curiosity, and an orientation to learning and development and continuous improvement.
The more we can understand the special features of systems, the more we as leaders, can start to create alternatives to open up new possibilities.
We need to see patterns of behavior and then develop and try small changes to nudge the system in a more helpful direction. Leaders are best served when they get a wider, more systemic view of the present.
The world is neither simple nor static. There are patterns for sure, but patterns that are not necessarily predictable. In the face of new challenges, we all default to how we think we should act and to what seems to have worked before. Managing the probable is reassuring but leaves us more open to being blindsided by the unpredictable and improbable. When we treat situations as different, complex, and uncertain, we can unlock solutions that can deliver meaningful rewards. Fluid and complex circumstances require flexibility and agility of thought.
We can’t foresee how uncertain conditions will unfold or how complex systems will evolve, but we can conduct thoughtful experiments to explore the possibilities. When people think in new ways, very small shifts can have unexpected and significant consequences.
Understanding this can have significant implications and the very different requirements of leadership in unpredictable settings helps an organization to select and develop the leaders they really need.
Some problems do not lend themselves to traditional, prescribed methods, simple models, or established norms. When we treat them as volatile, different, complex, and uncertain, we can unlock solutions and deliver material, incremental returns on our investment.
Awareness of the very different requirements of leadership in unpredictable settings should underpin all leadership development programs. As recent history has taught us, the only certainty about the future is that it will remain uncertain…